Kalshi market · KXGOVCA-26-SHIL
Who will win the governorship in California?
| Last trade | 24h volume | Lifetime volume | Open interest | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ | $57.5K | $8.8M | $4.4M | 2027-11-03 |
Prices in cents per $1 contract; volumes in USD. Last trade is the most recent value our archive holds for this market.
What are the current odds for Who will win the governorship in California??
The Kalshi market “Who will win the governorship in California?” is currently priced at 3¢ (3.0%), its last trade, and closes 2027-11-03.
Odds history
bid/ask spreadmidtrade (yes)trade (no)
How this market settles
The exact settlement rules Kalshi publishes for this market — the fine print that decides who gets paid:
If Steve Hilton is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Where the result comes from: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.
What this bet really costs you
| Venue | Fee per contract | Total taker fee |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0.20¢ | $0.20 |
| Polymarket US | 0.17¢ | $0.17 |
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price), Kalshi rounds the order total up to the next cent). Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees — the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Also trading on Polymarket
Our matcher links this market to the same event on Polymarket, last archived at 5¢ mid. Spread between the venues: 1.5¢; after estimated round-trip taker fees: 0.5¢.