Where the same bet is cheaper today
Every market listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket, side by side, after each venue’s fees.
This week: $26.02 across 5 opportunities — forks $2.23 locked in either way · gaps $21.35 if the pricier venue is right · lags $2.44 if the pricier venue is right method
What the scan does
Locked forks
What a locked fork is
No locked forks right now.
checked Nov 01 22:10 UTC
Sportsbooks ban you for this; exchanges don’t. When one appears, it lands here first.
What these prices are
Today’s board
No pair in any category right now.
checked Nov 01 22:10 UTC
No pair cleared the same-bet check board-wide today, out of 9,620 matched.
How we rank the pairs
Latest bid/ask midpoint on each venue, ranked by the gap left after round-trip taker fees:
fee_adjusted_cents = |mid_k - mid_p| - 200 * (0.07 * Pk * (1 - Pk) + rp * Pp * (1 - Pp)), where Pk and Pp are the Kalshi and Polymarket mids in dollars and rp is the Polymarket market's own catalog rate (0.03-0.07 by category; fee-free markets pay 0). Kalshi's fee is its general schedule, 0.07*P*(1-P) per side; both legs are doubled for a round trip (entry + exit). Every match is gated and ranked at the conservative maximum rp=0.07 first - a catalog read for all ~10.9k matches would OOM the export's memory budget - then the tens of pairs that pass the gate are re-priced at each market's real rate, so the fee-adjusted number can only rise on re-pricing and no pair is ever admitted that its true rate would have excluded. A market with no readable schedule keeps the maximum and says so in fees.pm_basis ("assumed_max" vs "catalog" vs "fee_free"). Only gated pairs (pairs, inside_fee_line) are re-priced this way, and only they carry the fees block; suspect pairs are rejected before re-pricing runs, so their fee_adjusted_cents stays at the conservative maximum and carries no fees block at all - two rows at identical mids can therefore show different fee_adjusted_cents depending on which list they are in, and a bare fee_adjusted_cents with no sibling fees block is how to tell a suspect row's number from a gated one's. fork_net_cents instead prices both legs of a locked fork off the book (YES ask on the cheap venue, NO = 100 - YES bid on the other) and subtracts ONE-WAY taker fees per leg: Kalshi ceil(7 * P * (1 - P)) cents per contract, Polymarket rate * P * (1 - P) * 100 cents at the market's own catalog rate (0.03-0.07 by category; fee-free markets pay 0; a market with no readable schedule is charged the 0.07 maximum and says so in fees.pm_basis). P is the leg's executed price in dollars - a fork holds to resolution, so there is no exit leg.
Best forks this week
What this window covers
- Iowa winsPays either wayYES 45¢ on Polymarket + NO 44¢ on Kalshi+$45 on $500either way
- Baylor winsPays either wayYES 56¢ on Polymarket + NO 35¢ on Kalshi+$35 on $500either way
- Air Force winsPays either wayYES 47¢ on Polymarket + NO 47¢ on Kalshi+$15 on $500either way
- SMU winsPays either wayYES 60¢ on Kalshi + NO 34¢ on Polymarket+$15 on $500either way
- Florida Atlantic winsPays either wayYES 20¢ on Kalshi + NO 75¢ on Polymarket+$10 on $500either way
Best gaps this week
What this window covers
- Will Ilija Srdanović become Prime Minister of Serbia following the next Serbian general election?26% cheaperPolymarket 16¢Kalshi
21¢, the higher price+$156 on $100if it hit - Who will win the next presidential election?25% cheaperPolymarket 15.3¢Kalshi
19.5¢, the higher price+$152 on $100if it hit - Will Chovy win Finals MVP at League of Legends Worlds?25% cheaperKalshi 16¢Polymarket
21.5¢, the higher price+$147 on $100if it hit - What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Chillicothe, Ohio originally scheduled for October 28, 2026?26% cheaperPolymarket 16.5¢Kalshi
21.5¢, the higher price+$147 on $100if it hit - Will Jakub Mensik win at least 4.5 more games than Adrian Mannarino?26% cheaperPolymarket 16.5¢Kalshi
21.5¢, the higher price+$147 on $100if it hit
Fine print
- Same question, same answer. Every gap and fork assumes both venues settle the question the same way. A different resolution source or cut-off can lose a fork both legs — read both venues’ rule pages before you bet.
- Quotes, not fills. Prices are archived bid/ask midpoints, not live quotes, and a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take. A card’s (i) names its volume when the book is thin.
- Reading the numbers. A YES contract pays $1 if it hits, so 62¢ is −163 in sportsbook odds. “$100 makes $X” is what $100 paid on each venue after its fee, held to settlement; “+$Y on $100” is how much more the cheaper venue paid (a fork quotes the same trade per $500: what $500 across both legs made either way).