Where the same bet is cheaper today

Every market listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket, side by side, after each venue’s fees.

This week: $26.02 across 5 opportunities — forks $2.23 locked in either way · gaps $21.35 if the pricier venue is right · lags $2.44 if the pricier venue is right method

Next scanalerts members hear first
What the scan does
Full scans of every matched pair start at the top of every hour, UTC, and the countdown is to the next start. Telegram alerts go out when a scan finishes, usually 35–55 minutes after it starts, while the cases listed here change only when the page is rebuilt, less often, so members see a new gap first. The line under the countdown is the bot's own status, read about once a minute while this page is open: a scan running now, what the last one found as it landed, or that scans are running late; under it, the month's count. The same status keeps each case's "open now" current.
every hour, on the hour

Locked forks

What a locked fork is
Pairs where buying YES on one venue and NO on the other pays $1 for less than $1 after fees. Both legs fill at the quoted prices, so the margin is locked the moment both orders land. Rare by construction — an empty list is the normal state.

No locked forks right now.

checked Nov 01 22:10 UTC

Sportsbooks ban you for this; exchanges don’t. When one appears, it lands here first.

Real gaps right now0
What these prices are
Latest archived bid/ask midpoints, not live quotes. Polymarket prices come from the global exchange (polymarket.com), which is generally not open to US persons — Polymarket US is a separate venue, and the state pages answer for both. The two venues can still settle differently. Research, not advice: check the number on the venue before you bet.

Today’s board

0 beat the fees, 0 inside the fee line
What “after fees” means here
What is left of the gap after both venues' taker fees on the way in and the way out — about 3.5–4¢ per contract. Below that line a gap is not money. This is the round-trip number, in cents; the dollar figures on the homepage assume one entry fee and settlement instead, so the two do not compare directly.

    No pair in any category right now.

    checked Nov 01 22:10 UTC

    No pair cleared the same-bet check board-wide today, out of 9,620 matched.

    How we rank the pairs

    Latest bid/ask midpoint on each venue, ranked by the gap left after round-trip taker fees:

    fee_adjusted_cents = |mid_k - mid_p| - 200 * (0.07 * Pk * (1 - Pk) + rp * Pp * (1 - Pp)), where Pk and Pp are the Kalshi and Polymarket mids in dollars and rp is the Polymarket market's own catalog rate (0.03-0.07 by category; fee-free markets pay 0). Kalshi's fee is its general schedule, 0.07*P*(1-P) per side; both legs are doubled for a round trip (entry + exit). Every match is gated and ranked at the conservative maximum rp=0.07 first - a catalog read for all ~10.9k matches would OOM the export's memory budget - then the tens of pairs that pass the gate are re-priced at each market's real rate, so the fee-adjusted number can only rise on re-pricing and no pair is ever admitted that its true rate would have excluded. A market with no readable schedule keeps the maximum and says so in fees.pm_basis ("assumed_max" vs "catalog" vs "fee_free"). Only gated pairs (pairs, inside_fee_line) are re-priced this way, and only they carry the fees block; suspect pairs are rejected before re-pricing runs, so their fee_adjusted_cents stays at the conservative maximum and carries no fees block at all - two rows at identical mids can therefore show different fee_adjusted_cents depending on which list they are in, and a bare fee_adjusted_cents with no sibling fees block is how to tell a suspect row's number from a gated one's. fork_net_cents instead prices both legs of a locked fork off the book (YES ask on the cheap venue, NO = 100 - YES bid on the other) and subtracts ONE-WAY taker fees per leg: Kalshi ceil(7 * P * (1 - P)) cents per contract, Polymarket rate * P * (1 - P) * 100 cents at the market's own catalog rate (0.03-0.07 by category; fee-free markets pay 0; a market with no readable schedule is charged the 0.07 maximum and says so in fees.pm_basis). P is the leg's executed price in dollars - a fork holds to resolution, so there is no exit leg.

    Best forks this week

    7 days of scans
    What this window covers
    How much of the window we actually have scans for. A window younger than its full width is labelled from the day counting started, never as a full week or month.
    • Iowa winsPays either wayYES 45¢ on Polymarket + NO 44¢ on Kalshi
      +$45 on $500either way
      Sat 13:00 → 16:00 UTC · 3 h · seen 5 times in all
      About this case
      One side traded $11.8K in 24 h — a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take.$500 makes $545 either way.
    • Baylor winsPays either wayYES 56¢ on Polymarket + NO 35¢ on Kalshi
      +$35 on $500either way
      Seen once at Sat 00:00 UTC
      About this case
      $500 makes $535 either way.
    • Air Force winsPays either wayYES 47¢ on Polymarket + NO 47¢ on Kalshi
      +$15 on $500either way
      Seen once at Sat 19:00 UTC
      About this case
      One side traded $1.5K in 24 h — a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take.$500 makes $515 either way.
    • SMU winsPays either wayYES 60¢ on Kalshi + NO 34¢ on Polymarket
      +$15 on $500either way
      Seen once at Sat 17:01 UTC
      About this case
      One side traded $15.0K in 24 h — a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take.$500 makes $515 either way.
    • Florida Atlantic winsPays either wayYES 20¢ on Kalshi + NO 75¢ on Polymarket
      +$10 on $500either way
      Fri 01:00 → 02:00 UTC · 60 min
      About this case
      One side traded $11.8K in 24 h — a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take.$500 makes $510 either way.

    Best gaps this week

    7 days of scans
    What this window covers
    How much of the window we actually have scans for. A window younger than its full width is labelled from the day counting started, never as a full week or month.
    • Will Ilija Srdanović become Prime Minister of Serbia following the next Serbian general election?26% cheaperPolymarket 16¢Kalshi 21¢, the higher price
      +$156 on $100if it hit
      Mon 16:31 → 16:32 UTC · 1 min · seen 666 times in all, last Tue 05:56 UTC
      About this case
      One side traded $1.1K in 24 h — a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take.The gap is 31.2% of the price.$100 makes $590 on Polymarket and $434 on Kalshi if it hit.
    • Who will win the next presidential election?25% cheaperPolymarket 15.3¢Kalshi 19.5¢, the higher price
      +$152 on $100if it hit
      Seen once at Thu 17:54 UTC · seen 465 times in all, last Fri 03:58 UTC
      About this case
      One side traded $8.2K in 24 h — a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take.The gap is 27.5% of the price.$100 makes $617 on Polymarket and $465 on Kalshi if it hit.
    • Will Chovy win Finals MVP at League of Legends Worlds?25% cheaperKalshi 16¢Polymarket 21.5¢, the higher price
      +$147 on $100if it hit
      Mon 09:24 → 15:26 UTC · 6 h · seen 387 times in all, last 19:01 UTC
      About this case
      One side traded $1.3K in 24 h — a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take.The gap is 34.4% of the price.$100 makes $588 on Kalshi and $441 on Polymarket if it hit.
    • What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Chillicothe, Ohio originally scheduled for October 28, 2026?26% cheaperPolymarket 16.5¢Kalshi 21.5¢, the higher price
      +$147 on $100if it hit
      Seen once at Thu 00:14 UTC · seen 22 times in all, last 00:22 UTC
      About this case
      One side traded $1.1K in 24 h — a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take.The gap is 30.3% of the price.$100 makes $573 on Polymarket and $426 on Kalshi if it hit.
    • Will Jakub Mensik win at least 4.5 more games than Adrian Mannarino?26% cheaperPolymarket 16.5¢Kalshi 21.5¢, the higher price
      +$147 on $100if it hit
      Seen once at Wed 17:36 UTC
      About this case
      One side traded $2.1K in 24 h — a thin book can quote a gap nobody can take.The gap is 30.3% of the price.$100 makes $573 on Polymarket and $426 on Kalshi if it hit.

    Fine print

    Gaps close in hours.

    The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.