Guides

Gaps and arbitrage

• Real Kalshi-Polymarket gaps right now in 2026Live count of real Kalshi-Polymarket gaps after fees, with pairs inside the fee line, suspect rejections, category mix, and the latest board timestamp.

  2026-09-22·7 min read·135 data points

Fees and costs

• 63c on Kalshi: odds and probability in 2026Convert Kalshi cents into implied probability, American odds and decimal odds, then see why a 63c YES needs about 64.63% after the taker fee.

  2026-10-08·7 min read·294 data points

• What -110 costs in 2026: vig vs market feesA -110 sportsbook line needs 52.38% wins and carries a 4.76% overround. Compare that with visible Kalshi and Polymarket taker fees before betting.

  2026-09-29·6 min read·150 data points

• Kalshi vs Polymarket fees in 2026: who's cheaper?Kalshi has one taker-fee curve; Polymarket sets category rates. See the 10c-to-90c fee table and when each venue is cheaper after vig in 2026.

  2026-09-22·8 min read·225 data points

State access

• Sportsbooks limit winners; Kalshi can't (2026)DraftKings limits winners because the book takes the other side. Kalshi matches traders, charges a fee, and has different limits.

  2026-10-03·9 min read·103 data points

• Can you bet on sports in California in 2026?California has no licensed online sportsbook in 2026, but Kalshi is available. See the verified state status, legal risks and Kalshi fee math.

  2026-10-01·6 min read·79 data points

• Where prediction markets are legal in 2026A 2026 state-by-state matrix for Kalshi, Polymarket US and Robinhood, with unavailable states, limited states and the legal events moving access.

  2026-09-22·7 min read·67 data points

Taxes

• Kalshi taxes in 2026: Section 1256 walkthroughKalshi profits are taxable; the open question is whether event contracts get Section 1256 60/40 treatment or short-term capital treatment.

  2026-10-10·7 min read·188 data points

• Do you pay taxes on prediction-market winnings?Yes — prediction-market profits are taxable in the US. What the IRS has and has not said about Kalshi, Polymarket US, and event-contract gains.
• Which 1099 forms does Kalshi actually send?Kalshi issues 1099-INT, 1099-MISC, and 1099-DA forms — but no 1099-B for event-contract trades. What each form covers and what you must report yourself.
• Section 1256 vs Schedule D for event contractsEvent-contract gains could be taxed three ways: 60/40 Section 1256, capital gains, or gambling income. What each means, and why nobody has settled on one.
• Polymarket US (QCX) taxes: what's differentPolymarket's US exchange is CFTC-regulated like Kalshi, so the tax questions are the same — but its history and tooling are months old.
• Export your Kalshi and Polymarket trade historyNeither venue sends a 1099-B, so your exported trade history is your tax record. Where the data lives and how often to pull it.
• Prediction-market tax record-keeping checklistA quarterly, ten-minute routine that makes April painless: exports, statements, promo terms, and the artifacts that survive an audit.

Robinhood event contracts

• How to enable event contracts on RobinhoodEvent contracts live inside the Robinhood app but are off by default. The eligibility checks and the exact path to turn them on.
• Robinhood event contracts: funding and limitsHow funding works for Robinhood event contracts, what limits apply, and where the ceiling is compared with going direct to Kalshi.
• What Robinhood event contracts actually costRobinhood event-contract trades carry a per-contract commission plus the exchange fee. The math per trade and how it compares with Kalshi direct.
• Robinhood event contracts vs a Kalshi accountSame contracts, different wrapper. When the Robinhood integration is enough and when a direct Kalshi account wins on catalog, limits, and cost.

Methodology

• How to cite TapeXray data in 2026TapeXray citation format, market coverage, fee assumptions, verification dates, known gaps and correction policy for Kalshi and Polymarket data.

  2026-10-13·8 min read·89 data points

• Why arb scanner numbers are wrong in 2026Kalshi-Polymarket gap scanners disagree because raw mids skip fees, spreads, stale quotes, rule forks, and category rates. Here is TapeXray’s gate.

  2026-10-06·8 min read·124 data points

How these pages are written

Every figure in a dated article comes from the archive behind the board, from the state availability matrix we re-verify by hand, or from a published venue document we cite with the date we checked it. Where we have not measured something, the page says so instead of estimating. Corrections are welcome and dated.