Kalshi market · KXPRESPERSON-28-AOCA
Who will win the next presidential election?
| Last trade | 24h volume | Lifetime volume | Open interest | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3¢ | $12.7K | $4.2M | $2.4M | 2029-11-07 |
Prices in cents per $1 contract; volumes in USD. Last trade is the most recent value our archive holds for this market.
What are the current odds for Who will win the next presidential election??
The Kalshi market “Who will win the next presidential election?” is currently priced at 9.3¢ (9.3%), its last trade, and closes 2029-11-07.
Odds history
bid/ask spreadmidtrade (yes)trade (no)
How this market settles
The exact settlement rules Kalshi publishes for this market — the fine print that decides who gets paid:
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Where the result comes from: This market will close and expire after a person has been inaugurated as President pursuant to the next presidential election.
What this bet really costs you
| Venue | Fee per contract | Total taker fee |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0.57¢ | $0.57 |
| Polymarket US | 0.49¢ | $0.49 |
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price), Kalshi rounds the order total up to the next cent). Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees — the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Also trading on Polymarket
Our matcher links this market to the same event on Polymarket, last archived at 13¢ mid. Spread between the venues: 3.7¢; after estimated round-trip taker fees: 1.2¢.