Kalshi market · KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
| Last trade | 24h volume | Lifetime volume | Open interest | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3¢ | $4.7K | $1.9M | $703.1K | 2027-01-01 |
Prices in cents per $1 contract; volumes in USD. Last trade is the most recent value our archive holds for this market.
What are the current odds for Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027??
The Kalshi market “Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?” is currently priced at 6.3¢ (6.3%), its last trade, and closes 2027-01-01.
Odds history
bid/ask spreadmidtrade (yes)trade (no)
How this market settles
The exact settlement rules Kalshi publishes for this market — the fine print that decides who gets paid:
If Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.
Where the result comes from: This market will close and expire early if the visit occurs.
What this bet really costs you
| Venue | Fee per contract | Total taker fee |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0.39¢ | $0.39 |
| Polymarket US | 0.34¢ | $0.34 |
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price), Kalshi rounds the order total up to the next cent). Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees — the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Also trading on Polymarket
Our matcher links this market to the same event on Polymarket, last archived at 3.2¢ mid. Spread between the venues: 3¢; after estimated round-trip taker fees: 1.8¢.