KalshiOtherActive

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?

66¢−194

last trade · closes 2026-12-31

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24h volume$811
Open interest$129.6K
Lifetime volume$257.6K

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmidyesno75%65%55%Sep 20 06:09 UTCSep 22 03:30 UTC

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
When
Closes 2026-12-31.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 66¢ you pay $2.38 in fees on Kalshi

    1.57¢ per contract · 151 contracts

  • On $100 at 66¢ you pay $2.03 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.35¢ per contract · 151 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.

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Data: Kalshi id KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH · ← All tracked markets