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Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?

last trade · closes 2026-12-31

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24h volume$31.8K
Open interest$436.0K
Lifetime volume$859.6K

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmidyesno10.0%5.0%0.0%Sep 20 06:26 UTCSep 21 22:21 UTC

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
When
Closes 2026-12-31.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 2¢ you pay $6.86 in fees on Kalshi

    0.14¢ per contract · 5000 contracts

  • On $100 at 2¢ you pay $5.88 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.12¢ per contract · 5000 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.

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Data: Kalshi id KXNOBELPEACE-26-DJT · ← All tracked markets