KalshiOtherActive
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
73.7¢−280
Odds history
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 74¢ you pay $1.82 in fees on Kalshi
1.35¢ per contract · 135 contracts
On $100 at 74¢ you pay $1.56 in fees on Polymarket US
1.15¢ per contract · 135 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Free Telegram alerts. Example:
Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Data: Kalshi id KXGTEMP-26-P0 · ← All tracked markets