KalshiOtherActive
Will any part of Venezuela be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?
2.9¢
Odds history
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If the 51st state is any part of Venezuela before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- When
- Closes 2029-01-20.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If the 51st state is any part of Venezuela before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $6.79 in fees on Kalshi
0.20¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $5.82 in fees on Polymarket US
0.17¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Data: Kalshi id KXSTATE51-29-VE · ← All tracked markets