KalshiPoliticsActive

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

60¢−150

last trade · closes 2027-10-25

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24h volume$15.4K
Open interest$418.1K
Lifetime volume$1.0M

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmidyesno67%57%48%Sep 20 06:08 UTCSep 21 23:10 UTC

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
When
Closes 2027-10-25.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 60¢ you pay $2.79 in fees on Kalshi

    1.68¢ per contract · 166 contracts

  • On $100 at 60¢ you pay $2.39 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.44¢ per contract · 166 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.

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Data: Kalshi id KXBRPRES-26-FBOL · ← All tracked markets