KalshiTechActive
Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI?
18¢+456
Odds history
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Who decides
- If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 18¢ you pay $5.74 in fees on Kalshi
1.03¢ per contract · 555 contracts
On $100 at 18¢ you pay $4.92 in fees on Polymarket US
0.89¢ per contract · 555 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Data: Kalshi id OAIAGI-26 · ← All tracked markets