KalshiPoliticsActive
Will President Trump resign before his term is up?
19¢+426
Odds history
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Who decides
- This market will close early if the event occurs.
- When
- Closes 2029-01-21.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 19¢ you pay $5.67 in fees on Kalshi
1.08¢ per contract · 526 contracts
On $100 at 19¢ you pay $4.86 in fees on Polymarket US
0.92¢ per contract · 526 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.
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