KalshiPoliticsActive

Will President Trump resign before his term is up?

19¢+426

last trade · closes 2029-01-21

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24h volume$3.7K
Open interest$146.7K
Lifetime volume$429.4K

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmidyesno34%25%15%Sep 20 06:32 UTCSep 21 22:26 UTC

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Who decides
This market will close early if the event occurs.
When
Closes 2029-01-21.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 19¢ you pay $5.67 in fees on Kalshi

    1.08¢ per contract · 526 contracts

  • On $100 at 19¢ you pay $4.86 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.92¢ per contract · 526 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.

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Data: Kalshi id KXTRUMPRESIGN · ← All tracked markets