KalshiEconomyActive
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?
4.2¢+2281
Odds history
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close and determine on the first 10 AM ET following the occurrence of the event if the event occurs prior to the target date.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 4¢ you pay $6.73 in fees on Kalshi
0.27¢ per contract · 2500 contracts
On $100 at 4¢ you pay $5.76 in fees on Polymarket US
0.23¢ per contract · 2500 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Free Telegram alerts. Example:
Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Data: Kalshi id KXRATECUT-26DEC31 · ← All tracked markets