Kalshi market · KXALIENS-27
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
| Last trade | 24h volume | Lifetime volume | Open interest | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.8¢ | $52.2K | $28.0M | $9.6M | 2027-01-01 |
Prices in cents per $1 contract; volumes in USD. Last trade is the most recent value our archive holds for this market.
What are the current odds for Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027??
The Kalshi market “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” is currently priced at 4.8¢ (4.8%), its last trade, and closes 2027-01-01.
Odds history
bid/ask spreadmidtrade (yes)trade (no)
How this market settles
The exact settlement rules Kalshi publishes for this market — the fine print that decides who gets paid:
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
Where the result comes from: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
What this bet really costs you
| Venue | Fee per contract | Total taker fee |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0.33¢ | $0.33 |
| Polymarket US | 0.29¢ | $0.29 |
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price), Kalshi rounds the order total up to the next cent). Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees — the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Also trading on Polymarket
Our matcher links this market to the same event on Polymarket, last archived at 4.4¢ mid. Spread between the venues: 0.4¢; after estimated round-trip taker fees: -0.7¢.