PolymarketOtherOpen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
3¢+3233
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 3¢ (+3233). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or…
Odds history
199 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
hard deadline December 31, 2026
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or…
- Who decides
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $6.79 in fees on Kalshi
0.20¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $4.85 in fees on Polymarket US
0.15¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x747dc809fb79e1b05be09c42d6179459a58de2ef3e40f02484a4e1260f741f75 · ← All tracked markets