KalshiEconomyActive
Will there be a recession in 2027?
24¢+317
Odds history
How this market settles
advance estimates count
- Pays Yes when
- If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Who decides
- If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
- When
- Closes 2028-01-31.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 24¢ you pay $5.32 in fees on Kalshi
1.28¢ per contract · 416 contracts
On $100 at 24¢ you pay $4.55 in fees on Polymarket US
1.09¢ per contract · 416 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Free Telegram alerts. Example:
Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Data: Kalshi id KXRECSSNBER-27 · ← All tracked markets