KalshiPoliticsActive

Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027?

4.7¢+2028

last trade · closes 2027-01-02

Open on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues

24h volume$788
Open interest$267.5K
Lifetime volume$1.2M

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmidyesno11.5%5.7%0.0%Sep 20 06:14 UTCSep 21 23:04 UTC

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
When
Closes 2027-01-02.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Tim Walz must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 5¢ you pay $6.65 in fees on Kalshi

    0.33¢ per contract · 2000 contracts

  • On $100 at 5¢ you pay $5.70 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.29¢ per contract · 2000 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free Telegram alerts. Example:

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.

Get alerts (opens in a new tab)

Data: Kalshi id KXLEAVEWALZ-27JAN01-TWAL-27JAN01 · ← All tracked markets