KalshiPoliticsActive
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?
17¢+488
Odds history
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 17¢ you pay $5.81 in fees on Kalshi
0.99¢ per contract · 588 contracts
On $100 at 17¢ you pay $4.98 in fees on Polymarket US
0.85¢ per contract · 588 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Data: Kalshi id KXINSURRECTION-29-27 · ← All tracked markets