Blog

One question per page, answered with a number we can show you where it came from. When the honest answer is “nothing today”, that is what the page says.

Last published 2026-09-227 more scheduled, three a week

Gaps and arbitrage

Real Kalshi-Polymarket gaps right now in 2026Live count of real Kalshi-Polymarket gaps after fees, with pairs inside the fee line, suspect rejections, category mix, and the latest board timestamp.
2026-09-227 min read132 data points

Fees and costs

Kalshi vs Polymarket fees in 2026: which is cheaper?Kalshi has one taker-fee curve; Polymarket sets category rates. See the 10c-to-90c fee table and when each venue is cheaper after vig in 2026.
2026-09-227 min read218 data points

State access

Where prediction markets are legal in 2026A 2026 state-by-state matrix for Kalshi, Polymarket US and Robinhood event contracts, with unavailable states, limited states and the legal events moving access.
2026-09-227 min read67 data points

How these pages are written

Every figure on a blog page comes from the archive behind the board, from the state availability matrix we re-verify by hand, or from a published venue document we cite with the date we checked it. Where we have not measured something, the page says so instead of estimating. Corrections are welcome and dated.