PolymarketWeatherOpen

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

1.2¢

last trade · closes 2027-02-01

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24h volume$0
Open interest$33.7K
Lifetime volume$817.4K

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Sep 18 14:04 UTCSep 23 13:52 UTC

How this market settles

hard deadline January 31, 2027

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
When
Closes 2027-02-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.94 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $5.94 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.06¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts (opens in a new tab)

Data: Polymarket id 0x16df76a155e148ef925c2a808204d5f2e2ac68d9585363616b82a6c6df765e84 · ← All tracked markets