PolymarketPoliticsOpen

Trump out as President by September 30?

0.1¢

last trade · closes 2026-10-01

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24h volume$73.7K
Open interest$365.2K
Lifetime volume$1.7M

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Sep 18 14:43 UTCSep 23 17:17 UTC

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When
Closes 2026-10-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.94 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $5.94 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.06¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Data: Polymarket id 0xc3794a8d3a34d04b9f39773e35c4cecdac89d32eab93e8589d9a6f03e04e9490 · ← All tracked markets