PolymarketOtherOpen

Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?

91¢−1011

last trade · closes 2028-01-01

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24h volume$753
Open interest$44.5K
Lifetime volume$889.1K

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid99%89%80%Sep 18 14:04 UTCSep 23 13:52 UTC

How this market settles

hard deadline December 31, 2027

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
When
Closes 2028-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 91¢ you pay $0.63 in fees on Kalshi

    0.57¢ per contract · 109 contracts

  • On $100 at 91¢ you pay $0.54 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.49¢ per contract · 109 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Data: Polymarket id 0x76e7f72aef4e8533e5f3e6672f223899682d52849e022cac8592a7a4f56cb1a7 · ← All tracked markets