KalshiPoliticsActive
Who will win the governorship in California? Xavier Becerra
95.7¢−2226
Odds history
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Who decides
- This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.
- When
- Closes 2027-11-03.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 96¢ you pay $0.28 in fees on Kalshi
0.27¢ per contract · 104 contracts
On $100 at 96¢ you pay $0.24 in fees on Polymarket US
0.23¢ per contract · 104 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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