KalshiPoliticsActive

Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?

66¢−194

last trade · closes 2027-11-03

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24h volume$4.6K
Open interest$174.7K
Lifetime volume$259.2K

Odds history

No odds history archived for this market yet — the archive accrues continuously.

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes.
When
Closes 2027-11-03.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect elections, the ultimate officeholder matters, not intermediate selectors. Postponed elections remain open until rescheduled or two years from original date. Annulled elections remain open until re-run. Death after election but before taking office still counts as a win. In case of ties, the winner through the jurisdiction's tiebreak mechanism prevails. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 66¢ you pay $2.38 in fees on Kalshi

    1.57¢ per contract · 151 contracts

  • On $100 at 66¢ you pay $2.03 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.35¢ per contract · 151 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts (opens in a new tab)

Data: Kalshi id KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03 · ← All tracked markets