KalshiTechActive

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

+1011

last trade · closes 2040-01-01

Open on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues

24h volume$0
Open interest$50.3K
Lifetime volume$195.0K

Odds history

No odds history archived for this market yet — the archive accrues continuously.

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
When
Closes 2040-01-01.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 9¢ you pay $6.37 in fees on Kalshi

    0.57¢ per contract · 1111 contracts

  • On $100 at 9¢ you pay $5.46 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.49¢ per contract · 1111 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free Telegram alerts. Example:

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts (opens in a new tab)

Data: Kalshi id KXOAIANTH-40-OAI · ← All tracked markets