KalshiPoliticsActive
Will the Democratic Party hold 46 seats in the 120th Congress?
1.5¢
Odds history
No odds history archived for this market yet — the archive accrues continuously.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If the Democratic Party has exactly 46 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- When
- Closes 2027-02-01.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If the Democratic Party has exactly 46 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $6.86 in fees on Kalshi
0.14¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $5.88 in fees on Polymarket US
0.12¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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