KalshiOtherActive

Will Tom Holland perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday?

41¢+144

last trade · closes 2028-01-01

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24h volume$346
Open interest$57.6K
Lifetime volume$192.1K

Odds history

No odds history archived for this market yet — the archive accrues continuously.

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
If Tom Holland performs / is announced as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday, then the market resolves to Yes.
When
Closes 2028-01-01.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If Tom Holland performs / is announced as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, Tom Holland satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Tom Holland is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Tom Holland appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as Spider-Man in any official performance, showing, or release of Avengers: Doomsday. Additional clarification(s): If Avengers: Doomsday is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Tom Holland was officially announced in Spider-Man, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for Spider-Man (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Tom Holland is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) Avengers: Doomsday is cancelled or completes its run without Tom Holland being announced or performing in Spider-Man, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for Spider-Man. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Disney. Any references to Disney or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Disney and Kalshi.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 41¢ you pay $4.12 in fees on Kalshi

    1.69¢ per contract · 243 contracts

  • On $100 at 41¢ you pay $3.53 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.45¢ per contract · 243 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Data: Kalshi id KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-TOM · ← All tracked markets