wan1230xde7b…5f4b

Every $100 on their bets came back as $92.77 · 132 bets settled since Apr 18

Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100

35 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
Cautious estimate: $64.35 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
Last fill 2 days ago — within the last 14 days

Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (2 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 02:28 UTC.

Best at Sports · $100 → $81last 10

Open bets you can still get in on

No · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
$194,750 at 69.4¢ · Aug 04 02:31 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 69.4¢ pays $144
No · Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
$120,070 at 93.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.9¢ pays $106
No · Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
$69,717 at 61.2¢ · May 10 00:34 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 61.2¢ pays $163

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Track record

Settled bets · newest first$100 result

Bears · Eagles vs. Bears$6,242 at 37¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$170
Saints · Spread: Saints (-3.5)$20,600 at 48¢ · Sep 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Chargers · Chargers vs. Bills$18,251 at 25¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Texans · Texans vs. Colts$17,655 at 38.5¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?$402 at 4.8¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?$786 at 6.6¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Colts · Colts vs. Chiefs$17,298 at 29¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Titans · Eagles vs. Titans$10,616 at 25¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Vikings · Vikings vs. Bears$14,000 at 35¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$186
Lions · Lions vs. Bills$22,389 at 31¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$2,204 at 39¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$93 at 0.7¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Colts · Ravens vs. Colts$20,500 at 41¢ · Sep 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Jets · Jets vs. Titans$20,093 at 48.9¢ · Sep 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$104
Patriots · Patriots vs. Seahawks$20,800 at 52¢ · Sep 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?$669 at 5.1¢ · Sep 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1,865
Yes · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$574 at 5¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$939 at 18.4¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$7,226 at 41.5¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$141
Team Yandex · Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs$15,000 at 30¢ · Aug 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$2,412 at 3.2¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?$537 at 88.8¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
No · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$90,585 at 18.2¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$132,786 at 74.2¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
Yes · Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?$191 at 73.3¢ · Jul 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$36
No · Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$11,975 at 87.3¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
Yes · Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3,200 at 32¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $28,607left out of every figure—
- No · Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$28,607 at 98.9¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
Spain · Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$13,406 at 95.5¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$532 at 25.3¢ · Jul 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$295
Yes · Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?$630 at 7¢ · Jul 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?$3,105 at 57¢ · Jul 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$75
No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$553 at 26.7¢ · Jul 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$275
Yes · Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?$6 at 8.2¢ · Jul 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$85,890 at 17.4¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$5,861 at 31¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$223
Yes · Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$2,745 at 46¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$118
Yes · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$11,812 at 23.5¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$1,094 at 22¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$2,053 at 30¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$75 at 26.2¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?$793 at 5.5¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$304 at 39.5¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?$664 at 27¢ · Jun 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$2,229 at 38.4¢ · Jun 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$5,757 at 32.5¢ · Jun 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$43 at 4¢ · Jun 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$864 at 35¢ · Jun 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$186
Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$5,189 at 39.7¢ · Jun 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$152
Yes · Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?$58 at 5.3¢ · Jun 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100

The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 132 settled bets.

47 more open bets

Yes · Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
$59,824 at 11.1¢ · Aug 12 18:46 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11.1¢ pays $903
No · Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
$40,491 at 43.1¢ · Jun 18 22:43 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 43.1¢ pays $232
Yes · Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
$39,144 at 53.2¢ · Sep 17 21:34 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53.2¢ pays $188
No · Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
$36,146 at 48.5¢ · May 30 14:52 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 48.5¢ pays $206
No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$35,555 at 41.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 41.3¢ pays $242
Yes · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
$27,024 at 9.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 9.7¢ pays $1,030
Yes · Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$24,401 at 37.4¢ · Apr 18 23:09 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 37.4¢ pays $268
Yes · Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
$18,067 at 50.3¢ · Apr 19 20:33 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50.3¢ pays $199
No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$17,357 at 70.6¢ · May 20 14:18 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 70.6¢ pays $142
Yes · Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
$15,771 at 45.4¢ · Aug 31 12:22 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 45.4¢ pays $220
Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
$14,305 at 41.4¢ · May 09 23:55 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 41.4¢ pays $242
No · Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$13,883 at 46¢ · May 17 18:55 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 46¢ pays $217
No · Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
$10,321 at 31.3¢ · Sep 02 15:17 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 31.3¢ pays $320
No · Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
$9,450 at 21.7¢ · Sep 23 01:20 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 21.7¢ pays $460
No · Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
$8,141 at 69¢ · Sep 23 23:39 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 69¢ pays $145
Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$7,426 at 46¢ · May 17 18:55 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 46¢ pays $217
No · Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
$7,246 at 41¢ · Sep 21 15:03 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 41¢ pays $244
No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$6,379 at 66¢ · Sep 16 18:24 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66¢ pays $152
Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
$4,992 at 7¢ · Aug 25 19:43 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 7¢ pays $1,429
No · Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
$4,851 at 58.7¢ · May 04 18:45 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 58.7¢ pays $170
No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?
$4,801 at 70.5¢ · Sep 16 16:45 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 70.5¢ pays $142
Yes · US strike on Cuba by December 31?
$4,166 at 41¢ · May 20 15:26 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 41¢ pays $244
Yes · Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
$3,789 at 52¢ · Jul 06 19:47 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 52¢ pays $192
Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$3,666 at 53¢ · Sep 22 03:19 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53¢ pays $189
Yes · Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
$3,313 at 11.5¢ · Jun 03 09:09 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11.5¢ pays $867
Yes · Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
$3,292 at 23.1¢ · May 20 15:26 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 23.1¢ pays $434
No · Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
$2,697 at 71.7¢ · Jun 24 23:52 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.7¢ pays $140
No · Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
$2,540 at 23.5¢ · Jul 13 14:37 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 23.5¢ pays $426
Yes · Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
$2,200 at 22¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 22¢ pays $455
Yes · Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
$1,551 at 7.8¢ · Apr 18 22:47 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 7.8¢ pays $1,290
Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat?
$1,362 at 79.5¢ · Jun 26 18:56 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79.5¢ pays $126
No · Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
$936 at 65.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 65.9¢ pays $152
Yes · Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
$900 at 46.6¢ · Aug 20 18:22 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 46.6¢ pays $214
No · Will the Republican Party win the WA-03 House seat?
$861 at 81.2¢ · Jun 26 18:56 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81.2¢ pays $123
Yes · Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
$846 at 9¢ · Jul 22 01:01 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 9¢ pays $1,111
No · Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
$788 at 14.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14.9¢ pays $673
Yes · Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
$757 at 15¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 15¢ pays $668
No · Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
$670 at 49.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49.5¢ pays $202
Yes · Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
$558 at 9.1¢ · Jul 22 01:01 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 9.1¢ pays $1,098
No · Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
$519 at 51¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51¢ pays $196
No · Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?
$480 at 81.4¢ · Sep 05 12:30 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81.4¢ pays $123
No · SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
$411 at 73¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 73¢ pays $137
Yes · Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
$382 at 4.2¢ · Aug 31 17:52 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 4.2¢ pays $2,387
Yes · Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
$323 at 29.4¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 29.4¢ pays $340
No · Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
$267 at 61¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 61¢ pays $164
No · Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
$220 at 46¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 46¢ pays $217
No · Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?
$168 at 10.1¢ · Sep 24 02:00 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 10.1¢ pays $990

By topic · $100 →

Other72 bets$80
Sports39 bets$81
Politics12 bets$45
Economy6 bets$124
Crypto2 bets$54
Tech1 bets$1,965

Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$4,550,467 · unrealized +$80,920 · profile ↗

Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.

Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100

35 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
Cautious estimate: $64.35 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
Last fill 2 days ago — within the last 14 days

Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (2 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 02:28 UTC.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.

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Fine print

Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.

Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b · ← All whale receipts