How TapeXray grades Polymarket whale receipts (2026)
Every receipt on TapeXray's whale pages is one Polymarket fill of at least $10,000, read from the venue's public data API with its transaction hash, and graded once the market resolves: correct or incorrect for the fill, a win or a loss for a position held to resolution. Profiles need 5 resolved positions.
What is a whale receipt?
A receipt is one fill on Polymarket: a wallet, the side it took, the outcome it bought or sold, the number of shares, the price, the time, and the Polygon transaction hash that proves it. TapeXray reads these from Polymarket's public data API, the same records the venue's own profile pages show, every 5 minutes. The feed keeps every fill whose value in dollars was at least $10,000 on either side of the trade, so a large resting order that gets filled counts as much as a large market order. The feed page shows the last 48 hours; older receipts live on the wallet pages. Right now the ledger tracks 478 wallets and 8,259 fills, and a wallet enters it the first time one of its fills clears the gate. Where a market has its own page on this site, the receipt links to it; otherwise it links to the venue. Nothing is typed in by hand, and nothing on these pages recommends a trade: a receipt records what a wallet did, dated, and what the market later paid. The market pages carry the same fills under a "Smart money" heading for markets that clear the volume gate, and the whale feed shows the newest.
How is a wallet's record graded?
Grading needs a resolution, and TapeXray takes it from Polymarket's data API, which reports either the on-chain payout for every outcome or the UMA oracle's settlement price once a market has settled. A market that is only proposed for settlement is still open here, however lopsided its price. The ledger holds 2,372 resolved markets touched by tracked wallets. A wallet's record counts only positions held to resolution: one the wallet still held when the market settled, or a closed position whose own figures show it was redeemed at the settlement value, within a couple of cents. Held positions are a win when the outcome held received the payout, a loss when another outcome did. A position sold before the market resolved is listed as exited early and is never a win or a loss, because the exit price is the wallet's business and the payout never reached it. A payout split between outcomes is void. A wallet gets its own page once it has 5 positions held to resolution; the site publishes at most 200 such pages, ranked by that count and then by realized P&L, and 11 are live on this build. Each page lists up to 300 receipts and a record per category, using the same eight categories as the resolutions feed. A wallet is labelled a specialist only when one category holds at least 60 % of its resolved positions and at least 5 of them; every other wallet is a generalist.
| Grade | Applies to | Meaning | Counted in the record? |
|---|---|---|---|
| correct | a fill | the side bought paid out, or the side sold did not | no: fills are receipts, not the record |
| incorrect | a fill | the side bought did not pay out, or the side sold did | no |
| open | a fill or a position | the market has not resolved | no |
| W | a position held to resolution | the outcome held received the payout | yes |
| L | a position held to resolution | another outcome received the payout | yes |
| void | a fill or a position | the payout was split between outcomes | listed, never as W or L |
| exited early | a closed position | sold before the market resolved | listed separately, never as W or L |
Whose money is it, and what do realized and unrealized mean?
The realized and unrealized figures on a wallet page are Polymarket's own, read from the data API's positions records and labelled as such everywhere they appear. TapeXray does not recompute a wallet's profit from its fills, because a fill-level profit would have to guess at exits and redemptions the chain records differently, and the venue's figure is the one the wallet itself sees. Unrealized figures are shown under the realized ones and never in a headline, a capsule or an alert. A wallet is its address. Polymarket lets an account choose a display name and choose whether it is public; TapeXray shows that name beside the address only when the owner's own flag says public, and the name can be removed from these pages on request through the contact page. No other identity is inferred or stored: no social handles, no bios, no guesses about who holds the keys. The positions and profile of every tracked wallet are refreshed at least every 24 hours and on the cycle after any new fill.
What does the Kalshi tape show, and what does it not?
Kalshi publishes no trader identity — this is an anonymous trade tape, not a whale ledger. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange whose public trade feed carries the market, the size, the price, the taker's side and the time, and nothing that ties one trade to the next. The tape page therefore lists trades whose value in dollars was at least $5,000 over the last 24 hours, 31 of them on this build, carrying the venue's own large-trade flag, and it cannot show a Kalshi wallet's record because no such record can be built from public data. That limit is the reason the receipts live on the Polymarket side. Every figure on this page was read from the same export that built the whale pages, graded 2026-09-29 14:46 UTC; the gate for cross-venue price gaps is described in how TapeXray measures gaps. Research, not advice: nothing here says what to bet, only what was bet and what it paid.