TheRealWarMonger0xe472…e7eb

Every $100 on their bets came back as $95.93 · 95 bets settled since Jan 29

Not verified yet — 18 of 30 settled bets

18 of 30 settled bets in the last 90 days
Cautious estimate: $36.47 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
Active today — within the last 14 days

Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (66 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 02:28 UTC.

last 10

Open bets you can still get in on

Yes · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
$4,775 at 95.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.5¢ pays $105
Yes · Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
$2,715 at 90.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.5¢ pays $110
Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
$2,155 at 71.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.8¢ pays $139

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Track record

Settled bets · newest first$100 result

Yes · Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$18 at 81¢ · Sep 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$840 at 84¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $199left out of every figure—
- No · Israel closes its airspace by August 31?$199 at 99.3¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
Yes · US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$84 at 42¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $50left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?$50 at 98.5¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
No · Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?$1,600 at 96.9¢ · Aug 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $3,926left out of every figure—
- No · Iran leadership change by July 31?$1,886 at 99.8¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$514 at 98.9¢ · Jul 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1,525 at 98.9¢ · Jul 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
No · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1,526 at 35.3¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$65 at 1.3¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $6,194left out of every figure—
- No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$6,194 at 99.6¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
No · Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$20 at 6.6¢ · Jul 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $139left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$139 at 99.5¢ · Jul 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
Yes · Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$924 at 28.7¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,046 at 63.8¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$57
Yes · Will France win on 2026-07-14?$200 at 36.4¢ · Jul 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$38 at 16¢ · Jul 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$525
Benoît Saint Denis · UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)$100 at 57¢ · Jul 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$300 at 3¢ · Jul 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$546 at 78¢ · Jul 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$52 at 0.5¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,450 at 96.3¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
No · Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$18,497 at 96.4¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $1,000left out of every figure—
- No · Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?$1,000 at 98.2¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$100 at 75¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?$30 at 5.7¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?$254 at 80.9¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$24
No · Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?$27 at 96.9¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
No · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$2,510 at 93¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
No · Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?$66 at 94.2¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
Yes · Erling Haaland: 2+ goals$1 at 19¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $792left out of every figure—
- No · Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$792 at 98.1¢ · Jun 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
Yes · Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6 at 0.1¢ · Jun 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2 at 0.1¢ · Jun 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage?$38 at 90¢ · Jun 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
Yes · Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?$9 at 18¢ · Jun 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
No · Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1 at 0.2¢ · Jun 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $6,580left out of every figure—
- No · US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$6,580 at 99.7¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$800 at 68.6¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$46
No · Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?$181 at 90.3¢ · Jun 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
Yes · Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$14 at 35¢ · Jun 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$6 at 0.17¢ · Jun 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
Yes · US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?$200 at 92¢ · Jun 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
Yes · Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$400 at 68.9¢ · Jun 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$45
Yes · Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$70 at 48.4¢ · Jun 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$107
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $100left out of every figure—
- No · Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?$100 at 98¢ · Jun 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
No · Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$400 at 56¢ · Jun 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$79
No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$219 at 86.3¢ · May 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
Yes · Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$285 at 63.1¢ · May 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$58

The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 95 settled bets.

8 more open bets

No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
$736 at 92¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109
No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
$384 at 96¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96¢ pays $104
No · Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
$100 at 74.1¢ · Mar 16 15:05 UTC
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74.1¢ pays $135
No · Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
$16 at 81¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81¢ pays $123
No · Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
$13 at 66.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66.1¢ pays $151
No · Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
$5 at 52¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 52¢ pays $192
Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
$5 at 70¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 70¢ pays $143
No · US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
$3 at 95¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95¢ pays $105

By topic · $100 →

Other59 bets$113
Economy13 bets$59
Sports11 bets$45
Politics10 bets$96
Crypto1 bets$111
Tech1 bets$103

Polymarket’s own figures: realized −$8,223 · unrealized +$15 · profile ↗

Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.

Not verified yet — 18 of 30 settled bets

18 of 30 settled bets in the last 90 days
Cautious estimate: $36.47 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
Active today — within the last 14 days

Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (66 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 02:28 UTC.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.

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Fine print

Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.

Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xe472ce6be1fb4673d6155de37e414ead8bace7eb · ← All whale receipts