Yes · Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$2,250,000 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200
qmarktea20xed10…d2e5
Every $100 on their bets came back as $102.96 · 45 bets settled since Jun 20
Why verified
- 34 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.17 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (284 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 02:28 UTC.
Best at Sports · $100 → $102last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$2,250,000 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200No · Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
$484,740 at 96.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.8¢ pays $103
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Raul Rosas Jr. · UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)$896 at 59¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$69
- Mehemmedeli Osmanli · UFC Fight Night: Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedeli Osmanli (Bantamweight, Main Card)$5,332 at 72.2¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Luis Hernandez · UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)$3,500 at 70¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$43
- Montel Jackson · UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Prelims)$3,940 at 67.1¢ · Sep 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$49
- John Castaneda · UFC Fight Night: Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda (Bantamweight, Prelims)$3,319 at 76¢ · Sep 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Arman Tsarukyan · UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)$267 at 74¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- Robelis Despaigne · UFC 331: Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne (Heavyweight, Prelims)$113 at 78¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- JooSang Yoo · UFC 331: Michael Aswell vs. JooSang Yoo (Featherweight, Prelims)$48 at 67¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $707,403left out of every figure—
- No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$707,383 at 99.3¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 15?$19 at 99.3¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Regina Tarin · Noche UFC: JJ Aldrich vs. Regina Tarin (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)$1,196 at 72¢ · Sep 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$39
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $23,744left out of every figure—
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$23,744 at 99.6¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Kurtis Campbell · UFC Fight Night: Trevor Peek vs. Kurtis Campbell (Featherweight, Prelims)$308 at 78¢ · Sep 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- Losene Keita · UFC Fight Night: Muhammad Naimov vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Main Card)$585 at 77¢ · Sep 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- Klaudia Sygula · UFC Fight Night: Nora Cornolle vs. Klaudia Sygula (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)$1,292 at 52.9¢ · Sep 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
18 bets at 97¢ or more · $149,956left out of every figure—
- No · US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?$35 at 99.9¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026?$3,826 at 99.9¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2026?$10,238 at 99.9¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August 2026?$68 at 99.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August 2026?$217 at 99.9¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Trump meet with Miguel Díaz-Canel in August 2026?$100 at 99.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?$6,328 at 99.8¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Iran leadership change by August 31?$166 at 99.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?$11 at 99.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by August 31?$348 at 99.8¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?$37,231 at 99.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?$2,388 at 99.2¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Trump out as President by August 31?$84,708 at 99.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$5 at 99¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$468 at 99.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Tennessee Titans in 2026-27?$100 at 99.9¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 in August?$219 at 99.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?$3,501 at 99.9¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Andre Lima · UFC Fight Night: Namsrai Batbayar vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card)$99 at 70¢ · Aug 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$43
- Gregory Rodrigues · UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)$2,668 at 57.3¢ · Aug 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$74
- Joel Álvarez · UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)$1,182 at 74¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Chidi Njokuani · UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)$3,338 at 75.6¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$32
- Tresean Gore · UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)$206 at 95¢ · Aug 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$0 at 95¢ · Aug 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Alexia Thainara · UFC Fight Night: Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)$3,500 at 70¢ · Aug 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$43
- Manoel Sousa · UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)$3,405 at 74¢ · Aug 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- Yadier del Valle · UFC Fight Night: Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, Prelims)$1,389 at 87¢ · Aug 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
4 bets at 97¢ or more · $15,961left out of every figure—
- No · Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in July?$10,556 at 99.9¢ · Aug 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Fight to Go the Distance?$10 at 99.9¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$202 at 99.5¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$5,193 at 99.7¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Michael Oliveira · UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims)$1,085 at 77¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- Bogdan Grad · UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad (Featherweight, Prelims)$3,803 at 81.6¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $3,084left out of every figure—
- Nothing · Nothing Ever Happens: July$2,952 at 99.9¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August? $131 at 98.9¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 45 settled bets.
47 more open bets
No · Trump out as President before 2027?
$304,656 at 92.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.4¢ pays $108No · Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$176,174 at 88.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.5¢ pays $113No · Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
$166,969 at 95.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.9¢ pays $104Yes · Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
$116,156 at 95.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.6¢ pays $105No · New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
$112,682 at 91.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.4¢ pays $109No · Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
$69,352 at 96.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.3¢ pays $104No · Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
$61,141 at 96.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.7¢ pays $103No · Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
$38,182 at 90.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.6¢ pays $110No · Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
$35,649 at 88.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.9¢ pays $112No · Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$34,287 at 96.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.6¢ pays $104No · Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
$30,409 at 87.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.7¢ pays $114No · Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?
$19,850 at 89.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89.7¢ pays $112Mayweather · Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2
$18,088 at 49¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49¢ pays $204No · China x Japan military clash before 2027?
$16,948 at 92.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.5¢ pays $108No · Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?
$15,891 at 93.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.5¢ pays $107No · Will Fomo launch a token by September 30 2026?
$15,724 at 96.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.6¢ pays $104Pacquiao · Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2
$11,978 at 49¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49¢ pays $204No · Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
$11,436 at 94.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.3¢ pays $106No · Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?
$11,004 at 90.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.4¢ pays $111No · Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
$9,648 at 56.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 56.4¢ pays $177No · Major CEX insolvent in 2026?
$7,727 at 91.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.9¢ pays $109Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$7,423 at 49.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49.5¢ pays $202No · Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
$6,360 at 90.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.8¢ pays $110No · Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$6,278 at 96.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.8¢ pays $103Yes · Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
$5,473 at 89.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89.5¢ pays $112No · Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?
$5,149 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109No · Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
$4,230 at 84.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.6¢ pays $118No · Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
$3,470 at 91.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.5¢ pays $109No · Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
$3,435 at 85.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.5¢ pays $117No · Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
$3,286 at 93.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.9¢ pays $107No · Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
$2,852 at 86.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.9¢ pays $115No · Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?
$2,771 at 87.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.8¢ pays $114No · Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?
$2,694 at 92.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.9¢ pays $108No · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?
$2,329 at 93¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93¢ pays $108No · Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
$2,154 at 93.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.2¢ pays $107No · Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?
$1,853 at 94¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94¢ pays $106No · Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
$1,850 at 92.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.5¢ pays $108No · US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
$1,807 at 90.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.3¢ pays $111No · Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
$1,805 at 86.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.2¢ pays $116No · Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?
$1,782 at 90.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.1¢ pays $111No · Will Trump resign before 2027?
$1,779 at 96.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.8¢ pays $103No · Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?
$1,776 at 94.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.7¢ pays $106No · Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
$1,772 at 86.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.6¢ pays $116No · Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?
$1,655 at 93.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.9¢ pays $107No · Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?
$1,633 at 91.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.8¢ pays $109Yes · Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
$1,543 at 87.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.7¢ pays $114No · Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?
$1,457 at 96¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96¢ pays $104
By topic · $100 →
- Sports40 bets$102
- Other4 bets$108
- Politics1 bets$105
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$2,093,831 · unrealized +$87,841 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 34 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.17 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (284 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 02:28 UTC.
Free Telegram alerts. Example:
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5 · ← All whale receipts