No · Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
$208,608 at 90.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.8¢ pays $110
GoriIIa0xfffa…864b
Every $100 on their bets came back as $98.38 · 143 bets settled since Feb 20
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 37 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $80.20 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Last fill 1 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (56 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 02:28 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $120last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
$195,870 at 82.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.7¢ pays $121Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$50,915 at 86.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.2¢ pays $116
Watch in this browser
Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$3,711 at 53¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $25,458left out of every figure—
- No · Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's US Open?$15,376 at 97.7¢ · Sep 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Alexander Blockx win the 2026 Men's US Open?$10,082 at 98.6¢ · Sep 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$12,792 at 92.7¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$2,163 at 79.5¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$26
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $19,346left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$19,346 at 98.2¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?$87,879 at 94¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?$10,410 at 93¢ · Aug 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$18,538 at 95.5¢ · Aug 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$2,525 at 69.6¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$44
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1,375 at 55¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$82
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $31,178left out of every figure—
- No · Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$31,178 at 99¢ · Aug 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$25,349 at 92.8¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$73,141 at 89.9¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$13,268 at 95.3¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$3,671 at 96¢ · Jul 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,025 at 20¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$32,475 at 8.7¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$50,362 at 16.8¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$495
- Yes · Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3,956 at 72¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$39
- Yes · President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$12,407 at 93¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$44,069 at 11.4¢ · Jul 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- France · Spread: Spain (-1.5)$7,943 at 88.3¢ · Jul 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- England · Spread: Norway (-1.5)$2,846 at 91¢ · Jul 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- No · Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$24,567 at 89.8¢ · Jul 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $22,754left out of every figure—
- No · Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$22,754 at 97.1¢ · Jul 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$2,384 at 83.7¢ · Jul 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?$6,496 at 86.3¢ · Jul 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- No · Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$21,265 at 96.5¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $108,718left out of every figure—
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$108,718 at 98.4¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10,276 at 96.5¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9,517 at 85.5¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- No · Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$13,687 at 94.1¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$15,446 at 9.4¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$22,502 at 97¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $21,186left out of every figure—
- No · Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$21,186 at 97.7¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$12,307 at 9.1¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$31,419 at 95.8¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?$22,850 at 96.3¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?$55 at 79.8¢ · Jul 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- Switzerland · Spread: Algeria (-1.5)$7,828 at 94¢ · Jul 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$6,876 at 93.9¢ · Jul 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $18,458left out of every figure—
- No · Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?$18,458 at 98.5¢ · Jul 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Austria · Spread: Spain (-2.5)$10,213 at 74¢ · Jul 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Matteo Berrettini · Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Fils$231 at 57¢ · Jul 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$75
- No · Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,017 at 96.3¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10,704 at 5.2¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?$17,077 at 85¢ · Jun 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- No · Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2,788 at 97¢ · Jun 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $9,991left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?$9,991 at 97¢ · Jun 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 143 settled bets.
7 more open bets
No · Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$37,603 at 85.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.5¢ pays $117Yes · Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
$19,988 at 82.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.5¢ pays $121No · Iran leadership change by December 31?
$14,724 at 83.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.8¢ pays $119No · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
$11,102 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109No · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
$4,608 at 96.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.8¢ pays $103No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$1 at 76.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.5¢ pays $131No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$0 at 83.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.2¢ pays $120
By topic · $100 →
- Other86 bets$92
- Politics26 bets$120
- Sports23 bets$93
- Economy6 bets$112
- Crypto1 bets$104
- Tech1 bets$122
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$542,854 · unrealized +$37,221 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 37 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $80.20 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Last fill 1 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (56 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 02:28 UTC.
Free Telegram alerts. Example:
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b · ← All whale receipts