BOUGHT No $10,500 @ 70¢ — Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Polymarket wallet · 0x2c39…56dc · “Dragontree” on Polymarket · “generalist”
Wallet 0x2c39…56dc — 384–224 on Polymarket
Wallet 0x2c39…56dc is 384–224 on resolved Polymarket markets since 2026-05-19: 609 positions held to resolution, realized P&L +$140,841 as reported by Polymarket's data API, 1001 fills on record, each linked to its Polygon transaction. Unrealized P&L is shown separately. Graded 2026-09-29 21:17 UTC.
Record
How the record is counted
| Category | W | L | Void | Exited early | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 384 | 224 | 1 | 2609 | 49 |
| Politics | 211 | 97 | 0 | 1099 | 4 |
| Other | 99 | 79 | 1 | 1029 | 39 |
| Sports | 15 | 21 | 0 | 83 | 0 |
| Crypto | 24 | 10 | 0 | 164 | 0 |
| Tech | 18 | 7 | 0 | 136 | 5 |
| Economy | 11 | 7 | 0 | 70 | 0 |
| Culture | 6 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 1 |
| Weather | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Realized and unrealized
Unrealized on open positions: +$990 (venue figure, not counted above).
Receipts
How a receipt is graded
1,001 fills on record since 2026-05-19; the newest 300 shown.
- open — unrealized
BOUGHT Yes $2,201 @ 95.3¢ — Trump renames AI by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $855 @ 34.6¢ — Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $249 @ 62¢ — Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $518 @ 91.4¢ — Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $238 @ 73.3¢ — Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $93 @ 60.2¢ — Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $2,765 @ 90¢ — Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $50 @ 99.9¢ — Will Trump say "Tariff" during his announcement? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $139 @ 99.9¢ — Will Trump say "Hottest" during his announcement? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $457 @ 74.8¢ — Will Trump say "Nuclear" during his announcement? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $3,821 @ 80¢ — US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $890 @ 5¢ — US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $42 @ 26.8¢ — Will Trump say "Biden" during his announcement? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $67 @ 42¢ — Will Trump say "Fake News" during his announcement? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT No $91 @ 39.9¢ — Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $254 @ 23.8¢ — Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $433 @ 34.3¢ — Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $707 @ 33.6¢ — Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $349 @ 29.8¢ — Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $825 @ 34.6¢ — Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $301 @ 31.9¢ — Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $950 @ 68.7¢ — Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $492 @ 11.9¢ — Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $9,740 @ 92¢ — US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $3,932 @ 82.3¢ — US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $1,064 @ 32.1¢ — US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $114 @ 34.2¢ — Trump renames AI by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $407 @ 33.3¢ — Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $207 @ 4¢ — Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $332 @ 4.3¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $2,621 @ 96¢ — Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $41 @ 37.6¢ — SSI public model released by November 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $46 @ 23¢ — SSI public model released by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $2,435 @ 36.9¢ — US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $392 @ 36.6¢ — Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $121 @ 87.8¢ — Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $26 @ 11.8¢ — Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $104 @ 45.9¢ — Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $463 @ 96¢ — Will Trump's remarks not air? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $329 @ 86.5¢ — Will Trump say "Comrade" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $61 @ 11.2¢ — Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $128 @ 6¢ — SSI public model released by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $312 @ 36.3¢ — SSI public model released by November 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $225 @ 44.4¢ — SSI public model released by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $4,858 @ 94¢ — Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓SOLD No $362 @ 38.5¢ — Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $516 @ 99¢ — Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $202 @ 57¢ — Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $182 @ 70.9¢ — Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $2,403 @ 70.1¢ — Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $377 @ 72.2¢ — Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $274 @ 15¢ — Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $193 @ 49.7¢ — Will Trump say "Pledge" or "Pledged" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $1,669 @ 81.8¢ — Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $3,236 @ 97¢ — Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $601 @ 62¢ — Will Trump say "Data Center" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $612 @ 67.5¢ — Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $256 @ 42.8¢ — Will Trump say "Bully" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT No $390 @ 58.5¢ — Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $433 @ 54.9¢ — Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $23 @ 1¢ — Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $5 @ 1.6¢ — Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $4,937 @ 75.8¢ — Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $413 @ 43.2¢ — Will Trump say "Moon" or "NASA" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $243 @ 19.6¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $595 @ 73.4¢ — Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $561 @ 55.6¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $324 @ 54¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $1,492 @ 46.9¢ — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $714 @ 70¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $24,828 @ 99.7¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $2,278 @ 87¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $600 @ 84.7¢ — Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" 5+ times during his remarks in North Carolina? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $276 @ 95¢ — Will Trump say "Hottest" during his remarks in North Carolina? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $154 @ 72.9¢ — Will Trump say "Egg" during his remarks in North Carolina? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $177 @ 71¢ — Will Warsh say "Task Force" 10+ times during September Press Conference? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $3,085 @ 99.9¢ — Fed rate hike in 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Broncos $81 @ 13¢ — Broncos vs. Chiefs (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $5,501 @ 22¢ — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $1,144 @ 39¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $2,109 @ 48.7¢ — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $597 @ 24.2¢ — Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $383 @ 20.8¢ — Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $864 @ 41¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $3,177 @ 86.3¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $173 @ 30.7¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $123 @ 27¢ — Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $809 @ 97.8¢ — Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $58 @ 89.7¢ — Will Trump say "Autism" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $400 @ 87.6¢ — Will Trump say "Rigged Election" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $159 @ 30.4¢ — Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $55 @ 35¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $156 @ 88.9¢ — Will Trump say "Secret Service" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $841 @ 96.9¢ — Will Trump say "Autism" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $160 @ 67.9¢ — Will Trump say "No Tax on Tips" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $407 @ 90.5¢ — Will Trump say "Gay" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $508 @ 86.5¢ — Will Trump say "Rigged Election" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $194 @ 80.4¢ — Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $116 @ 87¢ — Will Trump say "Vegan" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $81 @ 85¢ — Will Trump say "Vegan" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $302 @ 44.5¢ — Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $156 @ 62.4¢ — Will Trump say "Endorse" or "Endorsed" or "Endorsement" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $269 @ 65.1¢ — Will Trump say "America First" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $709 @ 78.4¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $156 @ 71¢ — Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $334 @ 61.7¢ — Will Trump say "America First" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $610 @ 68.2¢ — Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $123 @ 44.1¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $501 @ 32.1¢ — Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $70 @ 72.6¢ — Will Trump say "My Father" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $34 @ 34¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $53 @ 80.8¢ — Will Trump say "Autism" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $104 @ 75¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $40 @ 96.9¢ — Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $39 @ 99¢ — Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $259 @ 82.9¢ — Will Trump say "Secret Service" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $182 @ 40.6¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $230 @ 92¢ — Will Trump say "Democrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" 25+ times during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT Patriots $12 @ 58¢ — Patriots vs. Seahawks (opens in a new tab)
resolved Seahawks incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $80 @ 80¢ — Will Trump say "Autism" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $520 @ 88.9¢ — Will Trump say "Ass" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗SOLD No $1,055 @ 47.2¢ — LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $578 @ 25¢ — LAPTOP FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $517 @ 65¢ — US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT Yes $130 @ 72¢ — LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $130 @ 52¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $101 @ 50¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $279 @ 93¢ — Will Trump say "Ass" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $545 @ 85.5¢ — Will Trump say "Ass" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $385 @ 85.5¢ — Will Trump say "Autism" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $305 @ 88¢ — Will Trump say "Gay" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $101 @ 50¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $119 @ 47.4¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $56 @ 56¢ — LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $2,786 @ 72.3¢ — LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $285 @ 83.8¢ — Will Trump say "Ass" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $14 @ 69¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $620 @ 76.5¢ — Will Trump say "Secret Service" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $959 @ 67.9¢ — US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗disputedBOUGHT No $81 @ 44.9¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $310 @ 83.8¢ — Will Trump say "Autism" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $224 @ 77.1¢ — Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $177 @ 69.9¢ — Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $697 @ 69.5¢ — Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $187 @ 66.8¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $53 @ 38¢ — Will Trump say "Endorse" or "Endorsed" or "Endorsement" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $11 @ 66¢ — US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗disputedBOUGHT No $122 @ 66¢ — US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $6,654 @ 96.2¢ — Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $296 @ 81¢ — Will Trump say "Gay" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $42 @ 82¢ — Will Trump say "Gay" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $60 @ 58.6¢ — Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $85 @ 12.8¢ — Will Trump say "No Tax on Tips" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $25 @ 19.8¢ — Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $45 @ 11.3¢ — Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $61 @ 14.3¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT Yes $1,077 @ 91.6¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT No $27 @ 63.5¢ — Will Trump say "Gay" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $2,150 @ 43¢ — US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓disputedBOUGHT Yes $2 @ 43¢ — US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓disputedSOLD No $1,269 @ 57.1¢ — US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓disputedBOUGHT Yes $224 @ 1.5¢ — Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $566 @ 90.5¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $91 @ 36.4¢ — Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $2,688 @ 89.6¢ — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $2,070 @ 15.9¢ — Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $4,875 @ 73¢ — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $50 @ 76¢ — LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $251 @ 77¢ — LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $409 @ 76¢ — LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $2,918 @ 74.8¢ — LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $94 @ 94¢ — Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $170 @ 92¢ — Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $614 @ 73.4¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $291 @ 46.4¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $919 @ 91.9¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $274 @ 72¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $623 @ 82¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $1,119 @ 70¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $436 @ 32.3¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $2,311 @ 80¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $341 @ 85.6¢ — Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $77 @ 90¢ — Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $20 @ 12.8¢ — Will Trump say "Vegan" during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $2,078 @ 91.1¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $385 @ 21¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $5,524 @ 94.3¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $4,566 @ 99.4¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $3,557 @ 96¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $314 @ 15.5¢ — Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $209 @ 16¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $19 @ 4.6¢ — Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $314 @ 11.9¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $755 @ 33.1¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $159 @ 34.6¢ — Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during RNC Convention? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $527 @ 97.9¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 7, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $97 @ 96.7¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT No $83 @ 30.7¢ — Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $67 @ 17.5¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $23 @ 15¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $150 @ 17¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes incorrect ✗BOUGHT Yes $284 @ 86.1¢ — Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $82 @ 9.7¢ — Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $187 @ 7¢ — Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $2,198 @ 89.8¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $1,810 @ 82¢ — Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $1,879 @ 77.5¢ — Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $131 @ 81.7¢ — Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 4? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $748 @ 98.2¢ — Will Trump say "No No No" in September? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $165 @ 77.4¢ — Will Trump say "No No No" in September? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $95 @ 98¢ — Will Trump say "11,888" this week? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $94 @ 98.7¢ — Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 1? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $2 @ 0.74¢ — Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 4, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $95 @ 99¢ — Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 31? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓SOLD Yes $1,200 @ 54¢ — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Arsenal FC $457 @ 26¢ — Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Arsenal FC $750 @ 30¢ — Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $3,165 @ 99.3¢ — Israel closes its airspace by August 31? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓SOLD Yes $806 @ 46¢ — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $3,416 @ 73.9¢ — Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $34 @ 0.7¢ — US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓SOLD Yes $1,184 @ 48¢ — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $58 @ 0.45¢ — US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No incorrect ✗BOUGHT Yes $46 @ 0.37¢ — US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No incorrect ✗BOUGHT Yes $61 @ 0.5¢ — US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $92 @ 11¢ — Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $661 @ 51¢ — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $44 @ 53¢ — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $2,092 @ 98.8¢ — US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓SOLD Yes $1,755 @ 72.9¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $2,406 @ 92¢ — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Chargers $16 @ 46¢ — Rams vs. Chargers (opens in a new tab)
resolved Rams incorrect ✗BOUGHT Chargers $112 @ 27¢ — Rams vs. Chargers (opens in a new tab)
resolved Rams incorrect ✗BOUGHT Chargers $1,833 @ 33¢ — Rams vs. Chargers (opens in a new tab)
resolved Rams incorrect ✗BOUGHT Chargers $243 @ 31¢ — Rams vs. Chargers (opens in a new tab)
resolved Rams incorrect ✗SOLD Yes $255 @ 77¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $1,044 @ 75.8¢ — Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $35 @ 14.2¢ — Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $2,490 @ 56.6¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $418 @ 13.8¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $5,361 @ 91.5¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $3,692 @ 83¢ — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $17,613 @ 87¢ — Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $547 @ 96.7¢ — US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $360 @ 9¢ — Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $190 @ 7¢ — Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $314 @ 11¢ — Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $800 @ 40¢ — Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $297 @ 34¢ — Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $306 @ 8¢ — Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $4,444 @ 80¢ — Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $2,221 @ 97.2¢ — Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $16 @ 31¢ — Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $65 @ 2.8¢ — US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No incorrect ✗BOUGHT Yes $393 @ 7¢ — US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $29 @ 54¢ — Will Trump say "World War" this week? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $35 @ 70¢ — Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD No $55 @ 19.6¢ — Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $5 @ 99¢ — Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Tele-Rallies? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $4 @ 51¢ — Will Trump say "Border" 3+ times during Tele-Rallies? (opens in a new tab)
resolved outcome 1 incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $85 @ 74.3¢ — Will Trump say "Landslide" during Tele-Rallies? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $128 @ 98.8¢ — Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 24? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT No $41 @ 96.2¢ — Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Tele-Rallies? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $70 @ 97.5¢ — Will Trump say "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" during Tele-Rallies? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $10 @ 61.4¢ — Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Rose Garden event? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $490 @ 99.9¢ — Will Trump say "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" during Rose Garden event? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $43 @ 43¢ — Will Trump say "Border" during Rose Garden event? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $20 @ 40¢ — Will Trump say "High School" during Rose Garden event? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $28 @ 79¢ — Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rose Garden event? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $432 @ 81.8¢ — Will Trump say "Oil," "Gas," or "Gasoline" during Rose Garden event? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $2 @ 49¢ — Will Trump say "Transgender" during Rose Garden event? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $40 @ 79¢ — Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Rose Garden event? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No correct ✓BOUGHT No $98 @ 98¢ — Will Trump say "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" during Rose Garden event? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $3,973 @ 91¢ — US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No incorrect ✗BOUGHT Yes $2,002 @ 91¢ — US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? (opens in a new tab)
resolved No incorrect ✗BOUGHT No $1,560 @ 71¢ — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $1,172 @ 70¢ — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $702 @ 90.1¢ — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $511 @ 93.3¢ — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $178 @ 50¢ — Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedSOLD Yes $77 @ 20¢ — Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT DEN $27 @ 12¢ — Spread: DEN (-3.5) (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT DEN $110 @ 11.9¢ — Spread: DEN (-3.5) (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $323 @ 17.6¢ — Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $357 @ 16.8¢ — Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $34 @ 99.9¢ — Will Trump say "North Carolina" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $100 @ 99.9¢ — Will Trump say "Afford / Affordable / Affordability" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $44 @ 99.9¢ — Will Trump say "Afford / Affordable / Affordability" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $88 @ 99.9¢ — Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $30 @ 75¢ — Will Trump say "Border" 10+ times during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $43 @ 82¢ — Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $61 @ 99¢ — Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $44 @ 99¢ — Will Trump say "North Carolina" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT No $6 @ 32¢ — Will Trump say "Disability" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $316 @ 87¢ — Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
resolved Yes correct ✓BOUGHT Yes $166 @ 65¢ — Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $214 @ 69.8¢ — Will Trump say "Border" 10+ times during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $308 @ 65¢ — Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealizedBOUGHT Yes $396 @ 64¢ — Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during his rally with Darline Graham? (opens in a new tab)
open — unrealized
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- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public; labels in quotes are inferred from trade patterns on the venue and nothing else.
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Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc · ← All whale receipts