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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18¢+456
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 18¢ (+456). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Odds history
199 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
hard deadline December 31, 2026
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 18¢ you pay $5.74 in fees on Kalshi
1.03¢ per contract · 555 contracts
On $100 at 18¢ you pay $4.10 in fees on Polymarket US
0.74¢ per contract · 555 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846 · ← All tracked markets