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Did you overpay on “Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026”?
Say what you paid, where and when. We price the same stake on the other venue’s archived book at that moment — ask, one-way taker fee included — and tell you what your ticket was really worth.
Your bet
You overpaid. A $100 stake on “Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?” made $119 on Polymarket vs $104 on Kalshi if it hit — you left $15 on the table.
Polymarket was asking 45.2¢ at that moment — 221 contracts, $2 in fees. Your fill: 48¢, 208 contracts, $4 in fees on Kalshi.
priced between the Oct 01 01:51 and Oct 01 02:25 UTC snapshots
Read against the Polymarket book at Oct 01 02:25 UTC, after one-way taker fees on entry. A bet held to settlement pays no exit fee. Snapshots are coarse — this is what the book said, not a fill you were guaranteed.
Kalshi 7% of price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Polymarket 3% of price × (1 − price), read from the catalog for sports_fees_v2. Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Both sides of this market
Latest archived asks: Kalshi 48¢ · Polymarket 45.2¢. The full odds history for each side: Kalshi market page · Polymarket market page.