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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

16¢+525

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

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24h volume$40.9K
Open interest$258.3K
Lifetime volume$1.6M

Quick answers

Where is "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 16¢ (+525). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid22%15%8%Oct 07 00:02 UTCOct 13 03:15 UTC

199 archived bid/ask quotes for "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-07 to 2026-10-13.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

32 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $34,590. Bought: No $361,923 · Yes $10,129.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Venue’s stated source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 16¢ you pay $5.88 in fees on Kalshi

    0.94¢ per contract · 625 contracts

  • On $100 at 16¢ you pay $4.20 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.67¢ per contract · 625 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (11,258 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 318,354 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0 · ← All tracked markets

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