KalshiOtherActive
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
4.1¢+2339
Odds history
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- When
- Closes 2026-12-31.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 4¢ you pay $6.73 in fees on Kalshi
0.27¢ per contract · 2500 contracts
On $100 at 4¢ you pay $5.76 in fees on Polymarket US
0.23¢ per contract · 2500 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Free Telegram alerts. Example:
Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Data: Kalshi id KXLLM1-26DEC31-XAI · ← All tracked markets