KalshiOtherActive
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
1.6¢
Quick answers
- Where is "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Kalshi last trade 1.6¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2026-12-31. Pays Yes when: If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Odds history
163 archived bid/ask quotes for "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?" on Kalshi, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- When
- Closes 2026-12-31.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $6.86 in fees on Kalshi
0.14¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $4.90 in fees on Polymarket US
0.10¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 270,036 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Kalshi id KXLLM1-26DEC31-XAI · ← All tracked markets