Get alertsSign in

PolymarketCryptoOpen

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?

99.9¢

last trade · closes 2026-10-05

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$291.9K
Open interest$686.9K
Lifetime volume$2.0M

Quick answers

Where is "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 99.9¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?" settle?
Closes 2026-10-05. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid100%50%0%Oct 03 16:12 UTCOct 08 00:18 UTC

187 archived bid/ask quotes for "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-03 to 2026-10-08.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

36 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $71,928. Bought: Up $875,129 · Down $162,969.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5…
Who decides
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Venue’s stated source
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
When
Closes 2026-10-05.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 99¢ you pay $0.07 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 101 contracts

  • On $100 at 99¢ you pay $0.05 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 101 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (14,960 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 471,380 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0x9c112394cb10a937fac9708860e53ce8b57742cf90c0b5ecb73f049edc5c31a4 · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

Open the free channelSet up personal alerts