KalshiPoliticsActive
Donald Trump out before 2027?
4.1¢+2339
Quick answers
- Where is "Donald Trump out before 2027?" cheaper right now?
- Kalshi last trade 4.1¢ (+2339). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Donald Trump out before 2027?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Odds history
172 archived bid/ask quotes for "Donald Trump out before 2027?" on Kalshi, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 4¢ you pay $6.72 in fees on Kalshi
0.27¢ per contract · 2500 contracts
On $100 at 4¢ you pay $4.80 in fees on Polymarket US
0.19¢ per contract · 2500 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Why the board stays free
Data: Kalshi id KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT · ← All tracked markets