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Kalshi market · KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT

Donald Trump out before 2027?

Politicsactive

Last trade24h volumeLifetime volumeOpen interestCloses
4.2¢$9.3K$5.9M$2.5M2027-01-01

Prices in cents per $1 contract; volumes in USD. Last trade is the most recent value our archive holds for this market.

What are the current odds for Donald Trump out before 2027??

The Kalshi market “Donald Trump out before 2027?” is currently priced at 4.2¢ (4.2%), its last trade, and closes 2027-01-01.

Odds history

Implied odds over time100%0%Sep 20 06:32 UTCSep 20 11:43 UTC

bid/ask spreadmidtrade (yes)trade (no)

How this market settles

The exact settlement rules Kalshi publishes for this market — the fine print that decides who gets paid:

If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

Where the result comes from: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

What this bet really costs you

VenueFee per contractTotal taker fee
Kalshi0.27¢$0.27
Polymarket US0.23¢$0.23

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price), Kalshi rounds the order total up to the next cent). Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees — the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Also trading on Polymarket

Our matcher links this market to the same event on Polymarket, last archived at 5.5¢ mid. Spread between the venues: 1.1¢; after estimated round-trip taker fees: -0.1¢.

See the Polymarket market page

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