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Ebola pandemic in 2026?

2.5¢

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$991
Open interest$35.8K
Lifetime volume$812.9K

Quick answers

Where is "Ebola pandemic in 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 2.5¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Ebola pandemic in 2026?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Oct 30 00:04 UTCNov 05 16:21 UTC

177 archived bid/ask quotes for "Ebola pandemic in 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

10 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $2,603. Bought: No $4,468 · Yes $17.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation…
Who decides
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications.
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 3¢ you pay $6.79 in fees on Kalshi

    0.20¢ per contract · 3333 contracts

  • On $100 at 3¢ you pay $4.85 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.15¢ per contract · 3333 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xb5911777e97da4199e822f42667f3afd8dfb7f9356f4d0fd553861d2368a1be1 · ← All tracked markets

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