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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
3.2¢+3025
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Quick answers
- Where is "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 3.2¢ (+3025). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Odds history
200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $6.79 in fees on Kalshi
0.20¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $4.85 in fees on Polymarket US
0.15¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x176e84015b1cc54d470836ef1d8a60753e17fa232d9b55e9aa8dde580d03f436 · ← All tracked markets