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Human moon landing in 2026?
1¢
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Quick answers
- Where is "Human moon landing in 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 1¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Human moon landing in 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Odds history
200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Human moon landing in 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Who decides
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi
0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US
0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x57e94552876e125c4a030239d693576dac1792e956982b653ce8c9b4fbc8f23c · ← All tracked markets