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Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

6.8¢+1371

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

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24h volume$4.5K
Open interest$68.6K
Lifetime volume$2.1M

Quick answers

Where is "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 6.8¢ (+1371). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid19%10%0%Oct 26 00:05 UTCNov 01 22:02 UTC

195 archived bid/ask quotes for "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.

How this market settles

hard deadline December 31, 2026

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Who decides
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 7¢ you pay $6.51 in fees on Kalshi

    0.46¢ per contract · 1428 contracts

  • On $100 at 7¢ you pay $4.65 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.33¢ per contract · 1428 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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