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Iran leadership change by December 31?
15¢+567
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Quick answers
- Where is "Iran leadership change by December 31?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 15¢ (+567). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Iran leadership change by December 31?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
Odds history
197 archived bid/ask quotes for "Iran leadership change by December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Who decides
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 15¢ you pay $5.95 in fees on Kalshi
0.89¢ per contract · 666 contracts
On $100 at 15¢ you pay $4.25 in fees on Polymarket US
0.64¢ per contract · 666 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607 · ← All tracked markets