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Iran Nuke before 2027?

3.8¢+2532

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

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24h volume$267
Open interest$95.6K
Lifetime volume$1.6M

Quick answers

Where is "Iran Nuke before 2027?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 3.8¢ (+2532). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Iran Nuke before 2027?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Nov 01 00:23 UTCNov 07 00:08 UTC

158 archived bid/ask quotes for "Iran Nuke before 2027?" on Polymarket, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-07.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

29 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $11,466. Bought: No $99,709 · Yes $456.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

hard deadline December 31, 2026

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 4¢ you pay $6.72 in fees on Kalshi

    0.27¢ per contract · 2500 contracts

  • On $100 at 4¢ you pay $4.80 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.19¢ per contract · 2500 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,171 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 237,279 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0x8bdeac60c92d3bc494792fd334ca181b0cf70355f23dca4098d558280b554c81 · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

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