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NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

6¢+1567

last trade · closes 2026-11-01

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24h volume$157.2K
Open interest$119.9K
Lifetime volume$1.7M

Quick answers

Where is "NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 6¢ (+1567). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?" settle?
Closes 2026-11-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid15%8%0%Oct 06 00:00 UTCOct 12 02:02 UTC

197 archived bid/ask quotes for "NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-12.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

36 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $14,450. Bought: No $64,220 · Yes $39,714.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When
Closes 2026-11-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 6¢ you pay $6.58 in fees on Kalshi

    0.39¢ per contract · 1666 contracts

  • On $100 at 6¢ you pay $4.70 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.28¢ per contract · 1666 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (17,146 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 307,591 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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