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PolymarketSportsOpenResolved Patriots

Patriots vs. Bills

99.9¢

last trade · resolved 2026-10-04

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$3.3M
Open interest$239.0K
Lifetime volume$3.4M

Quick answers

Where is "Patriots vs. Bills" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 99.9¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Patriots vs. Bills" settle?
Already settled: resolved Patriots on 2026-10-04.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid100%60%20%Sep 29 00:01 UTCOct 04 20:28 UTC

198 archived bid/ask quotes for "Patriots vs. Bills" on Polymarket, 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-04.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

61 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $354,610. Bought: Bills $1,578,655 · Patriots $682,784.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots".
Who decides
https://www.nfl.com/scores
When
Closes 2026-10-04.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Heads up: Polymarket has 2 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

Resolution

Resolved Patriots on 2026-10-04.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 99¢ you pay $0.07 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 101 contracts

  • On $100 at 99¢ you pay $0.05 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 101 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (12,837 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 13,959,065 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0xa4e8985378f0ce110f8316ac41e3004e2f9db4e4963d7e98cd851df322a28f8d · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

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