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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

3.3¢+2930

last trade · closes 2026-11-01

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24h volume$150.8K
Open interest$249.6K
Lifetime volume$1.7M

Quick answers

Where is "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 3.3¢ (+2930). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?" settle?
Closes 2026-11-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise,…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid13%6%0%Sep 27 00:00 UTCOct 03 21:54 UTC

200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-09-27 to 2026-10-03.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

24 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $25,496. Bought: No $245,220 · Yes $12,519.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise,…
Who decides
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through…
When
Closes 2026-11-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 3¢ you pay $6.79 in fees on Kalshi

    0.20¢ per contract · 3333 contracts

  • On $100 at 3¢ you pay $4.85 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.15¢ per contract · 3333 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (12,806 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 22,818,833 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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