PolymarketOtherOpen

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

8¢+1150

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

Open on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues

24h volume$350
Open interest$33.0K
Lifetime volume$5.5M

Quick answers

Where is "US strike on Cuba by December 31?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 8¢ (+1150). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "US strike on Cuba by December 31?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid16%9%3%Oct 26 00:13 UTCNov 01 22:02 UTC

175 archived bid/ask quotes for "US strike on Cuba by December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.
Who decides
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 8¢ you pay $6.44 in fees on Kalshi

    0.52¢ per contract · 1250 contracts

  • On $100 at 8¢ you pay $4.60 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.37¢ per contract · 1250 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts (opens in a new tab)
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0x3de0f3d7d7efb40cde68e814d40a0b232832083653c8e78260eb999baa967de0 · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.