KalshiPoliticsActive
Who will win the next presidential election?
16¢+525
Quick answers
- Where is "Who will win the next presidential election?" cheaper right now?
- Kalshi last trade 16¢ (+525). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Who will win the next presidential election?" settle?
- Closes 2029-11-07. Pays Yes when: If J.D.
Odds history
201 archived bid/ask quotes for "Who will win the next presidential election?" on Kalshi, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If J.D.
- When
- Closes 2029-11-07.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 16¢ you pay $5.88 in fees on Kalshi
0.94¢ per contract · 625 contracts
On $100 at 16¢ you pay $4.20 in fees on Polymarket US
0.67¢ per contract · 625 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Kalshi id KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN · ← All tracked markets